Tuesday 22 February 2011

TODAY'S TEMPERATURE FORECASTS-----WHO SHOULD YOU BELIEVE?

I would imagine that the majority of Pitlochry residents who use the internet to get the day's weather forecast, consult either the Met Office site  (Central, Tayside & Fife) or the BBC 5-day forecast for Pitlochry(which is incidentally, exactly the same as the Aberfeldy 5-day forecast.)

If you check the forecast maximum temperature for today, the differece between the 2 sources above is very large, with the BBC Pitlochry going for 1 degree, the Met office(Central/Tayside. Fife) 7 degrees.   WHY?

Of course, part of the explanation is that Central, Tayside & Fife is a large area & SOMEWHERE within it will perhaps  hit 7 degrees, but this is likely to be the highest; many places will be lower, so why not give a range that will take in the vast majority of places.

Another likely explanation is that the BBC's SPOT forecast is for a town in a valley in the Highlands. There has therefore been an assumption on numerous occasions ( including today), that there will be a TEMPERATURE INVERSION pegging temperatures well back. The weather today is also given as FOG, which means "visibility below 1000m in all directions"

At the time of writing,1100 Hrs, the thermometer is reading 3.0 degrees & conditions could hardly be described as "foggy"   Even the "gold standard" sources of weather forecasting need treating with care!!

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