KEEPING A KEEN BUT SYMPATHETIC EYE ON THE MET OFFICE

LONGER-RANGE FORECASTING----

MET OFFICE GOES FOR CAUTION   (LATE JAN & INTO FEB)

This Weather Blog has never attempted to try its hand at long-term forecasting for Pitlochry. After all, the so-called experts don't exactly have a great track record in predicting what's lined up for the coming month or season.
In the case of the latter, which is truly in its infancy, the Met Office threw caution to the wind & blabbed to the press instead of keeping what was experimental, firmly under wraps.The result was a predicted "barbecue Summer" turning out to be a damp squib.  In these times with a plethora of private forecasting organisations anxious to win new business, the long-established "gold standard"of the Met Office became under threat.

So, it was with some relief,  that I have been reading in recent days, some encouraging, common-sense thinking from the M.O. on their website which looks ahead giving the forecasts for periods 6 to 15 &16 to 30 days ahead.

This is a quote from their outlook for the period 6 to 15 days ahead , effective from the middle of next week

"There is considerable uncertainty in the forecast, with an almost equal probability of a more changeable weather type returning" (following a brief period of more settled conditions with overnight frost)"or much colder conditions developing across the U.K., with snow in places & widespread frost."

Well done, Met Office!!    If things are on a knife edge, just tell us so. We all understand that forecasting the weather is a very different thing from forecasting an eclipse or the time of high tide years in advance!